'Overburdened' MPs and MLAs eye relief but challenges abound ahead of delimitation

'Overburdened' MPs and MLAs eye relief but challenges abound ahead of delimitation

New Delhi: The next delimitation will happen after the new census expected soon. To fix the number of legislators in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, the commission will have to take some big calls.

Delimitation in India is a decennial exercise supposed to be undertaken after each census. However, it is rarely talked about though it significantly impacts democracy and is impacted by demography. Delimitation is done through a Delimitation Commission constituted by an Act of Parliament. 

The commission decides the number of legislators in the Lok Sabha (LS) and various state assemblies, takes a call on the number of people a national or state legislator would represent, redraws the boundaries of parliamentary and assembly constituencies, and determines the number of parliamentary and assembly constituencies reserved for the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs).

The first three delimitations happened after the 1951, 1961 and 1971 census when population figures were 36.1, 43.9 and 54.8 crores respectively. 

Accordingly, the Delimitation Commissions fixed the number of members in the LS at 494, 522 and 543 respectively, who represented 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 lakh people per constituency respectively. Today, the population has risen to over 140 crores, more than 2.5 times since 1971, but the number of LS members remains constant. 

Thus our representatives are ‘overburdened’; one MP is representing about 25 lakh people, and one MLA is usually representing about 3-5 lakh people depending on the size of the state. Is that fair? Doesn't that adversely impact the quality of democracy in our country?

This problem of ‘overburdening’ was created due to two reasons. One, in 1975, during Emergency, then PM Indira Gandhi put a freeze on delimitation till 2000. Hence, there were no delimitations in 1981 and 1991, so the seat-population ratio could not be maintained. 

Two, in 2001, Parliament passed the 84th Constitutional Amendment that put a freeze on the number of members of the Lok Sabha and state legislative assemblies till the census after 2026. The freeze was on the mistaken assumption that by 2026, India would achieve replacement growth rate -- i.e. the birth and death rate would become equal. 

There are no indications that it will happen by 2026. Consequentially, the 4th Delimitation Commission (2002) could not recommend increase in LS and assembly seats, but just redrew the electoral boundaries of several constituencies and made adjustments for SC/ST seats that were raised as per constitutional provisions.

The fifth delimitation will happen after the new census expected soon. The challenges before the Delimitation Commission are manifold. It will have to address the issues of democracy, federalism and demography. In doing the exercise of fixing the number of legislators in the LS and various state assemblies, it will have to take a call on a few normative questions.

One, what should be the new number of seats in the LS and state assemblies? The Commission has two options: (a) it can fix a raised number of seats in the LS and each state assembly, or (b) it can decide the optimum number of people that an MP or an MLA should represent and then calculate the new number of seats. 

A new parliament has come up that can accommodate 888 members, so the Modi government is ready for an increase in LS seats. But, what about states, especially UP, Bihar, MP, West Bengal and Maharashtra, which are most likely to get a large chunk of seats in their respective assemblies after delimitation? Where would the additional members in the assemblies sit? No state is even talking about that.

The second, and perhaps more difficult, question would be how to apportion the increased number of LS seats among several states?

The Delimitation Commission will have to think of some innovative formula that can maintain the principle of ‘one-person, one-vote, one-value’ and also ensure that states, especially in the south, that have performed better in population control may not feel let down for their ‘good work’ in that respect. 

The first four Delimitation Commissions did not disclose what formula they adopted for apportionment of seats among states, but it is hoped that the 5th Delimitation Commission will make it transparent and ensure that some special ‘population-control-seat-incentive’ is given to our southern states.

The third challenge before the Delimitation Commission would be to reserve 1/3 seats for women in the LS and all state assemblies under the provisions of the 106th Constitutional Amendment 2023. That will require both vertical and horizontal reservations for women in all categories -- general, SC and ST. 

That means that not only 1/3rd of overall seats in the LS and each state assembly should be reserved for women, but also in each category -- general, SC and ST -- 1/3rd seats must be reserved for women. Reserving women's constituencies will be problematic.

In case of SCs and STs, there are clear constitutional and legal guidelines as to which seats are to be reserved, but in case of women, there are no such guidelines. It may give arbitrary powers to the Delimitation Commission in respect of reserving women's seats. 

That may lead to political bickering when seats are reserved or de-reserved to settle political scores. We also must watch how women's seats will be rotated in the LS and state assemblies after one election cycle; rotation of women's seats in panchayats and municipal bodies has already given arbitrary powers to local administrative officials.

The fourth challenge for the Delimitation Commission would be in respect of reserving SC/ST seats. The first step would be determining the total number of SC/ST seats to be reserved in the LS and state assemblies. 

The number of LS seats for SC/ST shall bear the same proportion to the total number of LS seats as the proportion of SC/ST population bears to the total population of India. The same formula would apply in state assemblies too. 

The second step would be to work out the number of LS seats reserved for SC/ST in each state. The number of SC/ST seats so reserved in a state shall bear the same proportion to the total LS seats allotted to that state as the proportion of SC/ST population bears to the total population of that state.

Similarly, the third step would be to work out the number of SC/ST seats reserved in every state assembly.

The fifth challenge before the Delimitation Commission would be the actual redrawing of electoral boundaries of LS and assembly constituencies. That is because (a) many new LS and assembly constituencies may come up after delimitation; (b) the SC and ST constituencies will increase phenomenally; (c) many women's constituencies will have to be reserved.

This will require a total revamp and the redrawing of parliamentary and assembly constituencies that may lead to gerrymandering through which seats may be redrawn arbitrarily so that some ‘dominating community’ is either sent ‘packing’ or ‘cracking’ with favourable or adverse implication for one or the other party.

These are the major challenges before the forthcoming fifth Delimitation Commission. The Centre must start a discussion on delimitation and impress on the commission the need to adopt greater transparency and consultancy in the process.

That is so very important especially because the recommendations of the Delimitation Commission and their translation into law by Parliament or state legislatures is not subject to judicial review.