Anti-India sentiment was extremely high, for downfall of Shaik Hasina Government
Bangladeshis should recall the Indian sacrifices for her today's democratic existence. Factually India is now confronted with anti-India feeling in Bangladesh. Not because Bangladesh had always sought Indian support but for reasons that ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had gone very close to the Indian Prime Minister ignored to go by true Parliamentary Democracy. She followed the foot-steps of Narendra Modi by ignoring his anti Islam and Muslims agenda and her blind support like "Andh Bakh of Narendra Modi".
The present unfortunate fallout is not a permanent phenomenon between India and her eastern nighbour Bangladesh. The people of both countries know that there is substantial goodwill between them that will accelerate their ties further strength their democracies.
India is not happy with the disorder in the neighbourhood and no Indian ever imagines that this this is the best prospect for Bangladesh. Indian concern is that no third country should take advantage of the detoriarated law and order of Bangladesh and she should not term India as their inimical, because RSS misguided guided anti Muslim policies personally followed by team Narendra Modi by whose advice Sheikh Hasina changing her political agenda that frustrated the subjects of Bangladesh.
As Indian White Paper's Founder Editor MA Mujeeb being an Indian Air Force's veteran who fought for Bangladesh's freedom from Pakistan in 1971 and being Chairman of Freedom Party (FP's) National Working Committee and as an Advocate at Indian Higher Judiciary, Mujeeb shares his opinion with IWP over the Bangladesh present situation. How Bangladesh people showed doors to ousted PM Sheikh Hasina.
This was timely on the cards to witness the frustration of unemployed Bangladesh youth. The lovers of democracy are surprised with the rapid fallout in the Indian western neighbourhood, that originated from the inconsistent reservation (30 percent to the Bangladesh's freedom fighter's kin) in the Executive, Judiciary and Legislative jobs is withdrawn. Once a new Legislature is elected without reservation of 30 percent to Freedom Fighters kin, the situation will come to normalcy.
Infact, Sheikh Hasina was on a slippery slope after the recent elections in January 2024 she also followed footsteps of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi like Isbar 400 Paar. She won a consecutive fourth term. Public resentment against her was extremely high because yet another time the people had actually been deprived of their electoral right, that's what has taken place similar to that of Indian in recent elections where polled votes are less than the won votes.
Though she had managed to get away with it on previous occasions -- in fact, even in the 2018 election in Bangladesh, she was vulnerable because of the way she got elected amid allegations of wide-scale rigging and manipulations like that how Narendra Modi did irregularities in Election Commission of India's constitutional functioning with three members committee consisting of the Prime Minister, Leader of the Opposition and Chief Justice of India.
She could weather the storm at that time because Bangladesh's economy was doing better, but this was the last straw and short lived. It needed a spark to light the fire and the student movement for better State employment did that. For a leader Sheikh Hasina is known as the iron lady of Bangladesh who ruled for 15 years, it was indeed her miscalculation.
Her fundamental miscalculation was that she thought the Bangladesh army and regional powers were with her, but the circumstances went against her and no one could withstand it despite the ruling of the Bangladesh Supreme Court on the issue.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was not strong enough to launch an agitation against her and she thought she would be able to handle any opposition to her re-election. As Modi abused the Constitutional machinery ED, CBI, National Security Agency and put opposition leaders in Jail like that of the BNP leader Khaleda Zia has also been in prison since 2018 and now she made her cards working and setting herself to be released.
The miscalculation was not judging the sentiment on the street where people were seething with a lot of frustration and determined anger. There were several reasons for public anger -- the choking of democracy, no right to express contrary views, locking up opponents -- half the BNP leadership was in jail, the other half in exile similar to that under leadership of the Indian PM adopted short cuts for making India into Hindu State, by lynching Muslim minorities by the State actors representing for Hindu manuwad.
On one hand the people were waiting for a chance to get back. That's the impression any developing democracies including India had from the robust Indian community in Dhaka, which is mostly in the garment business. The anti-Hasina trend and at times, anti-India sentiment was extremely high.
After the elections there was an 'Indian Out' movement which did not succeed because Bangladesh is very dependent on India from tooth brushes to cars.
That virtually did not succeed, that engulfed the desperation of the unemployed Bangladesh youth.
On the other hand Sheikh Hasina's other miscalculation was her inability to accommodate her own allies like Jatia Party leader Anwar Hossain Manju who was defeated by his personal assistant, the dirty politics of Sheikh Hasina promoted her enemy within the close enemy the opposition BNP.
Look at the voting pattern in seats where an Awami League candidate was challenged by a dissident Awami League candidate, there was some voting, but where an Awami League candidate stood against parties that were allowed to contest, the voting was in single digits.
Farcical elections and authoritarian rule do not work in countries that have tasted democracy. This certainly worked in strengthening and uniting her opposition. The demonstration by the agitators climbing on the statue of their father of the nation Sheikh Mujibur Rahman at the Bijoy Sarani area in Dhaka and trying to pull down the statue, similar like that Nathuram Godse killing father of the India
As India is confronted with anti-India feeling because she had India's support that actually made a lot of political space tt used against her downfall. Now India has to deal with it with dual foreign policy against Bangladesh, taking into account whether it could be a permanent phenomenon. There is substantial goodwill towards India which will stand India in good footings.
It all depends the fact know what kind of government will be formed and whether there will be free and fair elections, but depends upon the fair amount of the understanding among Bangladeshi leaders whether they are in need of good relations with India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's his personal superiority complex like that of the Maldives where China succeeded showing doors to Indian military personnel
So in the interim there will be some setbacks for India during the one way traffic rule of Narendra Modi administration. But not permanently, as the People entered the Bangladesh parliament and demonstrated their frustration.
By her unconstitutional acts, Sheikh Hasina her wayout for her Awami League's future from the formation of her party's government in near future. Sheikh Hasina is 76 and there is not much of a political future for her; the concern is the future of the Awami League, minus her other political successor of Mujeebur Rehman, Awami League's coming into power is far from reality.
The last time this happened in Bangladesh was in 1975 when Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and the whole family was assassinated. This was followed by the doing away of democracy and Sheikh Hasina only returned in 1980.
Time will tell what the future holds for the Awami League and Bangladesh. It has great support in Bangladesh in each and every village, but at the moment it is tarred by the recent rule of Sheikh Hasina.
In time it will recover, but the legacy of Sheikh Hasina who provided great economic growth is tarred and also of Sheikh Mujib who is the father of Bangladesh and the embodiment of the liberation movement which have been damaged extensively.
As usual for any neighbouring State when government is toppled in neighbouring State, the guards in uniform visit their immediate neighbour like that India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal's North 24 Parganas district and Sunderbans on August 5, 2024.
There are usual allegations that the Pakistan mission in Dhaka was active in fomenting trouble. Any stable democracy like Bangladesh can think of the quota agitation as sufficient reason for the enormous conflagration.
The quota issue was not sufficient reason for this mass upsurge. The situation was grave and needed a spark. Once the students took to the streets, people from all walks of life joined the movement. It was a spontaneous mass upsurge and frustration against the establishment added fuel to fire.
The powers who hope to gain from this will intervene and of course, Pakistanis will not miss the opportunity. Also other political and Islamic parties not favourable to India would have jumped on the bandwagon, but it is largely a mass upsurge.
People's fear of coming out on the streets was broken by the students. We need not think it is completely instigated by foreign powers. We have to admit that there was serious anti-government sentiment in Bangladesh and we will be deluding ourselves to think it was only manipulated by the ISI of Pakistan.
While the People celebrated Sheikh Hasina's resignation with the coordinators of the anti-quota protests in Dhaka, August 5, 2024. And the President of Bangladesh rightly dissolved the Bangladesh Parliament for the free and fair election.
As Bangladesh has returned to military rule. The army chief has said he will be meeting the president to form an interim government. It remains to be seen who constitutes the interim government.
It will be an all-party government because then he will have to accommodate the Awami League and people since in frustration against Awami league, they will accept Awami League as part of the government. The BNP has said it will only contest elections if there is a caretaker government.
How long will it take the army to restore order in Bangladesh? Common sense dictates that after having thrown Sheikh Hasina out, most people would want peace, law and order, and go home. India has to wait and watch.
About General Waker-uz-Zaman, the army chief, who seems to be the man in charge now, as the senior-most army officer and related to Sheikh Hasina.
The tendency in South Asia is that even if you are the most competent person, but if you happen to be related to the powers that be, people tend to suspect the worst about such a person.
India might have drawn a line from the rank and file about the stature General Waker-uz-Zaman enjoys in the army. There were reports that young officers were upset about how the army had been used by Sheikh Hasina. It is an acid test for General Waker-uz-Zaman to be seen as his military leader. They will be acceptable and his authority without any question, but the first priority of General Waker-uz-Zaman should be to restore law and order.
Disorder in the neighbourhood is not the best prospect that a neighbouring nation wants. The concern would be that it should not be taken advantage of by those inimical to India.
The MEA however has said that it is an internal matter and will hope that order is restored. If Sheikh Hasina heads to the UK, it will be strange to see developments if she takes a house next to Tarique Rahman! the exiled acting chairman of the BNP and opposition leader Khaleda Zia's son.
