Bishkek: Azerbaijan, which had until recently been condemning India's
Operation Sindoor and even allowing Kashmir Day events by the Pakistan
Embassy, is now slowly rethinking its ties. But why?
On the sidelines of the recent summit of the heads of states of the
members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held in
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a series of
bilateral meetings.
While most of them, with those like the meetings with Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan,
were covered by the Indian media, one went overlooked - that with
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev.
Just consider, almost a year ago at a similar SCO summit meeting in
Tianjin, China, Baku had alleged that India, together with some other
member states, had blocked its bid for entry to the organisation.
A year later, Modi and Aliyev were holding a bilateral meeting at an
event where Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were also present.
For Baku, this was certainly a consequential moment - it was splashed
all across the country's media, which had been overtly hostile to
India just a while ago.
Bilateral ties, always strained, nosedived after Operation Sindoor,
where Baku had come out strongly in support of Islamabad and condemned
India's actions. So, what prompted this course-correction now?
A breakthrough was first witnessed earlier this year, when India and
Azerbaijan held the 6th round of Foreign Office Consultations in Baku,
the first such talks since 2022.
The talks were held between India's Ministry of External Affairs
Secretary (West), Sibi George, and Azerbaijan's Deputy Foreign
Minister, Elnur Mammadov, on Friday. In a statement, the MEA release
for the meeting said,
"[The two sides] comprehensively reviewed the current state of
bilateral relations covering areas of mutual interest. The issues
discussed included trade, technology, tourism, pharmaceuticals,
energy, culture, people-to-people exchanges, and a fight against
cross-border terrorism."
Secretary (West) also met Hikmet Hajiyev, the Foreign Policy Advisor
to the President of Azerbaijan.
The term "cross-border terrorism" is significant. While for Baku, it
could allude to either rival Armenia or Iran, with whom it shares a
complicated relationship, for India, it is clearly Pakistan, for it is
the only country that has been fomenting cross-border terror for
India.
Last year, when India initiated Operation Sindoor precisely in
response to such cross-border transgressions, Baku had come out
strongly in support of Pakistan.
This reset in ties, though obvious, is perhaps not surprising. Both
countries have much to gain from cordial relations with each other.
However, Azerbaijan stands to gain more. And while India has always
struck a conciliatory position, it is Baku that has usually taken a
strident position vis a vis Delhi.
Consider the facts. Azerbaijan, as part of the erstwhile Soviet Union,
had cordial relations with India, which recognised it as a sovereign
state in 1992 as it emerged as an independent nation following the
collapse of the Soviet Union.
Yet, while India's relations with all other former Soviet states took
off on an even keel, with Azerbaijan, they remained dormant.
The Indian diplomatic mission in Baku was opened only in March 1999,
while Azerbaijan opened its diplomatic mission in Delhi even later, in
2004. It took even longer to appoint an Ambassador.
Twenty-years later, there have been no major high-profile official
bilateral visits between the two sides at the level of heads of state
or government.
Meanwhile, over the years, India's bilateral trade with Azerbaijan has
increased substantially.
According to government data, bilateral trade jumped from around USD
50 million in 2005 to USD 1.435 billion in 2023, with India becoming
Azerbaijan's seventh-largest trading partner.
But trade remains firmly tilted in Azerbaijan's favour, primarily on
account of its crude exports to India. So, while India's imports from
Azerbaijan were USD 1.23 billion, exports were only about USD 201
million. The same year, tourist footfall from India was around 1.17
lakh tourists.
Yet, Azerbaijan, while deepening ties with Pakistan, including in
defence, took umbrage at India for its defence exports to Armenia,
though there is still no record of the latter deploying Indian weapons
during its wars with Azerbaijan. It didn't stop there.
While India took a neutral position over Nagorno-Karabakh, the
contested territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which the latter
finally managed to wrest militarily from Armenia, Azerbaijan echoed
Pakistan's position on Jammu and Kashmir.
That's not all; it allowed Kashmir Day events by the Pakistan Embassy
on its territory, condemned India's reorganisation of Jammu and
Kashmir, and, earlier this year, even allowed a conference organised
by Khalistani supporters.
Perhaps it has now realised that pursuing good relations with India
will reap richer dividends for it. The plunge in the number of Indian
tourists - a mainstay of the country's economy - by almost 30%
following Operation Sindoor was certainly not encouraging for it.
Following energy export disruptions in the Middle East, the Indian
energy market would also assume greater salience for Baku. In 2023,
India was the third-largest destination for Azerbaijan's crude oil.
Moreover, ONGC Videsh Ltd holds active stakes in Azerbaijani oil and
pipeline assets, including the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli oil field and the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
The ongoing peace process with Armenia is another factor in the
bilateral decision to reset ties. Baku has been seriously alarmed by
India's export of sophisticated weapons systems to Armenia, especially
the Pinaka Multi-Barrel Rocket
Launchers and the Akash Air Defence Systems, as well as suggestions
about the supply of the BrahMos cruise missiles.
Baku has alternatively slandered Indian arms, threatened India, and
even offered to purchase Indian military hardware via a third country.
Resetting ties with India would, therefore, certainly preempt any
military threat from it.
Normalisation, however, has a price - strain in Azerbaijan's ties with
Turkey. The once self-acclaimed "One Nation, Two States" dynamic may
not last long.
As Azerbaijan and Armenia negotiate a peace deal, Armenia is also
simultaneously in the process of normalising its ties with Turkey
after a hiatus of almost a century. Of late, this has assumed the form
of direct border crossing and passage of cargo and freight.
Azerbaijan, however, wanted such normalisation to be contingent on the
finalisation of its peace agreement with Armenia.
While Turkey has for now deferred the establishment of full-fledged
diplomatic ties with Armenia, it sees no reason to postpone the
normalisation process.
Another emerging fault line in bilateral relations may be Turkey's
inclusion in the Mecca Pact and escalating tensions with Israel, one
of Azerbaijan's closest energy and defence partners.
The overt religiosity of the Mecca Pact, as well as Turkey's current
Islamo-sensitivity, is bound to cause discomfort in Azerbaijan, which
is a strongly secular state, as most former Soviet states are.
On the other hand, escalating Israeli-Turkish tensions have already
become an irritant in Turkey's relations with Azerbaijan. Last year,
in May,
The Times of Israel reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
canceled his planned visit to Baku because Turkey refused to grant his
state plane overflight rights.
India will certainly seek to exploit this and perhaps wean Baku away
from Turkey's embrace as the latter increasingly becomes a strategic
threat for India.
Besides, the country also offers India a good market for its exports
and is also useful for India's connectivity ambitions in Eurasia,
being part of the International North South Transport Corridor
(INSTC).
The Modi-Alyev meeting in Bishkek, therefore, certainly points to a
new dawn in bilateral ties, a mutual recognition that relations can be
rethought and not continue to be viewed through the India-Pakistan or
Armenia-Azerbaijan prisms.
However, considering that it was Baku that held back initially from
cultivating good ties with India, and has taken a number of
provocative actions against India, Delhi should be careful and
watchful, even as it continues its engagement.
