India braces for below-normal rainfall for Aug-Sept
New Delhi : The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal rainfall for the crucial August-September period of the southwest monsoon, impacting agricultural prospects and water resources across the nation.
India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall during August and September, with less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The forecast specifically indicates below-normal rainfall for the month of August across the country.
Despite the overall deficit, July saw good rainfall activity, driven by four low-pressure systems and a favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation phase.
The Southern Peninsula recorded its 10th lowest cumulative rainfall and highest minimum temperature for July since 1901.
Extremely heavy rainfall events in July were concentrated in Odisha, Gujarat, and Maharashtra, despite the overall below-normal forecast for the latter half of the monsoon.
India as a whole is most likely to witness below-normal rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon from August to September, the India meteorological department (IMD) said in its monthly forecast issued on Friday.
The rainfall is expected to be less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), it said.
LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region in a given period, such as a month or a season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years.
The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during the August to September period, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, is 422.8 mm.
IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Monsoon For August-September : In a statement, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at the IMD, said, "During this (August-September) period, below-normal rainfall is very likely over many parts of the country, except some parts of peninsular India, central India, northern parts of northwest India, and east and northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely."
For the month of August, rainfall over the country as a whole is also expected to be below-normal, with less than 94 percent of the LPA, the IMD said.
The LPA of rainfall over India during August, based on the 1971-2020 data, is 254.9 mm.
Currently, India is facing a rainfall deficit of 13 percent for the period between June and July. At the end of June, this figure had stood at 35.4 percent.
"The reduction in rainfall deficit happened due to good rainfall activity in July," Dr Mohapatra said.
July Rainfall Performance And Contributing Factors : While the average rainfall in July is 280.5 mm, the country received 283.3 mm rainfall during the month this year.
There were two main reasons for this. First, four low-pressure systems (LPS) formed over the Bay of Bengal during the month, and two of them intensified into depressions. There was also a rise in the number of LPS days. While typically July sees 13.5 LPS days, this time there were 24 LPS days.
Second, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in a favourable phase initially in the month.
The MJO is a moving system of wind, cloud and pressure that brings rain as it circles the equator.
In a favourable phase, it brings more clouds to the south of India, which are then carried northwards by the monsoon winds, leading to enhanced rainfall. During the later part of July, however, the MJO was in an unfavourable phase.
According to the IMD, July also saw the highest number of extremely heavy rainfall events (more than 204.5 mm of rainfall) in the past five years. In 2026, there were 269 of such events; in 2025, 84; in 2024, 194; in 2023, 205; and in 2022, 129.
Dr Mohapatra pointed out that the extremely heavy rainfall events in July were largely concentrated in Odisha, Gujarat and Maharashtra.
While India as a whole saw slightly above-normal July rainfall this year, cumulative rainfall over the Southern Peninsula was the 10th lowest (152.6 mm) since 1901.
As a result, according to Dr Mohapatra, the region saw the highest minimum temperature (24.68 degrees Celsius) for July this year since 1901. The normal minimum temperature in the Southern Peninsula for this month is 23.68 degrees Celsius.
