Will Sheikh Hasina Be Killed If She Returns To Dhaka?

'By announcing she will return and is prepared to be jailed or worse she hopes to mobilise the cadres and raise their morale.' 'Possibly there will be a fresh trial, hopefully affording her a fair chance of defending herself.'

'The situation in Bangladesh has not returned to normal even after two years of the student uprising.' 'At the moment, India's image in Bangladesh is poor.'

 

After nearly two years out of public view following her dramatic fall from power and subsequent flight from Bangladesh, former prime minister Sheikh Hasina broke her silence with a virtual press conference from India on Wednesday, August 5, 2026 -- two years to the day after her ouster from power -- declaring that she intends to return to her country despite the prospect of imprisonment -- or worse.

Her re-emergence comes at a time when Bangladesh remains politically unsettled, with her party the Awami League weakened by arrests and exile, the ruling dispensation facing mounting criticism over governance and the economy, and relations between New Delhi and Dhaka showing signs of strain.

Hasina's decision to address the media from India sparked controversy in Dhaka, with Bangladesh's foreign ministry issuing a strongly worded protest against what it views as political activity conducted from Indian soil.

A section of media interviewed former special secretary, Cabinet secretariat, and a veteran Bangladesh watcher, on the significance of Hasina's planned comeback, the risks she faces if she returns, evolving balance of power under Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, and the implications for India-Bangladesh ties.

What message did Sheikh Hasina send out by addressing a press conference in India?

With almost the entire Awami League leadership behind bars or in exile, the cadres bearing the brunt of reprisals, the Jamaat making strenuous efforts to expand its footprint, it is a signal to the party rank and file that she has not abandoned them.

By announcing she will return and is prepared to be jailed or worse, she hopes to mobilise them and raise their morale.

Mind you, even though the Awami League was barred from contesting the last election and its cadres prevented from political activities, it remains a very potent political force.

It is even bigger than the Jamaat which took advantage of the Awami League's absence from the electoral field and was able to win about 70-odd seats.

It is also a mass-based secular party which, despite all the developments of the previous two years, remains completely loyal to her.

What may happen to her if and when she returns?

She will certainly be jailed and tried.

Just as she had dealt with Begum Zia who, till Mohammed Yunus took over, spent her last years in house arrest.

Begum Zia was deprived of her political rights, even denied permission to go abroad for treatment.

Sheikh Hasina has been tried in absentia and already found guilty.

Possibly there will be a fresh trial, hopefully affording her a fair chance of defending herself.

Sadly, the judicial system there has in important cases failed to deliver justice, convicting some wrongly, as seen by recent acquittals of those accused in the bomb attack on Sheikh Hasina in which she narrowly escaped or in the case in which a large cache of arms and ammunition meant for indian insurgent groups was seized in Chittagong.

The Jamaat, whose leaders she had hanged for crimes committed collaborating with the Pakistan army during the war of liberation, will demand her head.

So will the student leaders, holding her responsible for the deaths in the attempt to suppress the student movement.

They probably imagine any hue and cry in the event Sheikh Hasina is hanged will be shortlived as it happened when (Zulfikar Ali) Bhutto was hanged in Pakistan in 1979.

Will people come on to the roads to greet her if she lands in Bangladesh?

There are hardly any leaders in the country who can mobilise effective street protests.

I think the government will be wary of not committing the same mistakes Hasina made and create conditions that can turn potentially destabilising.

Nahid Islam, the student leader, said that after two years of the uprising against Hasina, many political goals have not become a reality. Is it true? Has disillusionment set in among the young generation in Bangladesh?

I think there is.

You see, they had the July Uprising Declaration, which contained a number of points in which changes had to be made, some of which were constitutional changes to which the government was not agreeing.

They have gone slow in implementing those changes, and now the NCP (National Citizen Party, formed by student leaders in February 2025) and the Jamaat are using this as a pretext to protest against the government.

The situation in Bangladesh has not returned to normal even after two years of the student uprising.

Law and order is terrible, and economic conditions and international relations have hardly improved.

There is a shortage of gas and electricity, and the 11-party Opposition alliance has already announced an agitation.

So things are turbulent in Bangladesh.

It is a difficult time for the current government, and, on top of that, Sheikh Hasina's return will lead to political turmoil.

Law and order is yet to be restored, economic conditions remain the same if not worse as the impact of the wars in Ukraine and West Asia continue to adversely affect the country.

What about Prime Minister Tarique Rahman? Is he in control of Bangladesh?

He is a good person. He means well. He remains in control.

He has shown all the signs of a mature leader.

He has been a very democratic leader till now.

Time will tell if conditions become adverse, but I don't think there is any challenge to him.

He is the final authority as far as the party is concerned and as far as the Bangladesh government is concerned.

Tarique will soon have a hand-picked president and his own choice as the army chief.

What has been his achievement since he was elected?

He was elected in February 2026, so he has been in power for less than one year.

It is too early to assess his achievements.

The situation may not be ideal, but he is trying his best.

'Tarique has not yet granted an interview to our high commissioner'

Tarique Rahman has not yet visited India. After Hasina's press conference, what is our stance now?

It is an important point you have raised.

Despite the steps that the Indian government took following the death of Khaleda Zia (Tarique Rahman's mother), Foreign Minister S Jaishankar went to Bangladesh and so did the Lok Sabha Speaker.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh went to the Bangladesh high commission to sign the condolence book for Khaleda Zia in December 2025.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended an invitation to him twice -- once personally and then as an observer for the BRICS Summit -- but there has been very little response from his side.

I think there is some exasperation here as well because Tarique has not yet granted an interview to our new Indian high commissioner in Bangladesh.

This is quite surprising, as we have a much more important bilateral relationship with Bangladesh than with many other countries.

We are neighbours and surround Bangladesh on all sides except Myanmar.

Then there is the perception that Pakistan has influence in the Bangladeshi establishment, and that there is a tilt towards the Chinese government after Bangladesh signed an agreement with China to develop Mongla port (Bangladesh's second-largest and second-busiest seaport, just 188 km from Kolkata and close to the Sunderbans).

There is also the fact that Mandarin has been introduced into Bangladesh's education system, and China is going to open cultural centres across Bangladesh, as it has done in Nepal.

I am retired and do not know what is happening within the government, but surely there will be some concern in South Block.

I hope steps will be taken by both sides to arrest the slide after a good beginning.

Is Jamaat the reason for Tarique Rahman not wanting to reach out for India?

The relationship between India and Bangladesh depends on how people in the two countries perceive each other.

At the moment, India's image in Bangladesh is poor.

Correctly or wrongly, they accuse India of supporting Sheikh Hasina despite the wrongdoings during her government.

So, in this situation, any leader ruling the country cannot be seen as being friendly with another country that is perceived as unfriendly by the people of his own country.

It reduces your elbow room, and now this press conference by Hasina goes against public opinion in Bangladesh.

'I don't know if Tarique Rahman's visit to India for the BRICS Summit will materialise'

Do you think anger against Hasina is no longer seen on the streets of Bangladesh, and therefore the Indian government took a chance by allowing her press conference?

I really don't know, but what I hear from people in Bangladesh is that their concern is more about day-to-day issues such as growing corruption, lawlessness and declining job opportunities.

So people are more worried about these issues than about Hasina.

However, there is a section that keeps harping on Hasina for its own political relevance and that will not go away.

Besides that, there is also a section that keeps harping on Hasina's misrule.

That will always be there in any country, just like the core supporters of US President Donald Trump's MAGA movement.

India is also concerned about pushing back illegal Bangladeshi migrants from West Bengal and Assam.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has said clearly that Bangladeshis are not welcome in Assam as it is not their land and West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari too has the same opinion.

Bangladesh's foreign ministry has issued a strong statement over Hasina's press conference on Indian soil. What do you make of it?

This was to be expected, as they had been saying that Hasina should not undertake any political activity from India.

I agree with you that it is strongly worded, and I do not know whether Tarique Rahman's visit to India for the BRICS Summit will materialise or not. This certainly puts a question mark over his visit.